National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --385FXUS61 KGYX 180228AFDGYXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gray ME1028 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions expected over the rest of the weekendbefore more cold front arrives Sunday night, bringing stormyweather through Tuesday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto will betracking north through the western Atlantic and staying well outto sea. Long period swell from Ernesto will start to arrivetonight and peak around Monday bringing high surf and a ripcurrent risk. High pressure moves in for the 2nd half of thisweek, bringing more tranquil conditions.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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1025 PM Update...No changes to the going forecast for theovernight hours as it remains on track.7 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast this eveningas we remain mostly dry. Like the last few nights, stratus andfog should become more widespread as the evening progresses. Afew showers are possible here and there but most of the regionwill remain dry this evening.Previously...A mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Great Lakes will approachthe northeast, ushering clouds and moist air into the region. Mid-level dry air will release overnight and allow for thedevelopment of some scattered showers by early tomorrow morning.Some fog and low-level stratus is also expected to developovernight as light winds will prevent places from mixing outuntil diurnal heating returns tomorrow morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...Tomorrow morning starts off foggy, with low-level stratusacross the area. Fog and stratus should lift by the latemorning. The mature mid-latitude cyclone will continue to slowlyapproach the northeast, possibly bringing some scatteredshowers through the day. Hurricane Ernesto will run parallel toour coastline well off to sea, bringing some high surf and ripcurrents tomorrow and Monday.&&.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Ernesto will continue to accelerate as it tracks well east of theCanadian Maritimes on Monday. This will allow for long period wavesto continue to reach the shoreline with some splash-over possible,especially Monday night as our peak astronomical tides for the monthwill be approaching.Meanwhile, an upper level trough and accompanying slow movingcold front will cross the region during the day Monday. Locallyheavy rainfall will be possible in a high PWAT environment andthe frontal system coming to a crawl. A few embeddedthunderstorms may occur along this boundary as well. It will behumid with surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Patchyfog will develop across the region especially near thecoastline.There is some uncertainty in Tuesday`s forecast. Some of the modelskeep the cold front moving offshore and ending the shower activity.Others allow for a weak wave of low pressure to form and track alongthis front, keeping precipitation in the region. In any case, willcontinue with chance pops for the region during the day.Plenty of cloud cover will pop on Wednesday as an upper level lowallows for plenty of instability across the region. The cloud coverwill once again lead to slightly below normal temperatures for thistime of the year.The upper level feature will begin to exit the region on Thursday. Aslight increase in sunshine will allow for temperatures to climbwell into the 70s.The flow aloft will become more zonal with time on Friday, beforeridging develops in the East over the weekend. This will allow for awarming trend to develop.&&.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Short Term...Low stratus continues to slowly lift out of the regionthis afternoon, with some MVFR and low VFR CIGS expected through theafternoon. CIGs drop by midnight as low-stratus will to redevelopafter sunset. Overnight areas of fog are possible in addition to thelow stratus, keeping most sites down through the morning. Conditionswill struggle to improve as showers move through the area just asfog starts to mix out, looking at MVFR CIGs by daybreak. Tomorrownight looks to resemble similarly to tonight`s forecast, withshowers, fog and low-level stratus developing again overnighttomorrow.Long Term...IFR conditions in any showers and possibly athunderstorm Monday into Tuesday. There will also be patchy fog,mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours. Conditionsgradually improve Wednesday, however there still be willisolated showers in the region especially the mountains. VFRconditions will end out the week.&&.MARINE...Short Term...Seas will progressively increase as HurricaneErnesto churns over the north Atlantic. SCA Issuance is likelyfrom Saturday night until Monday morning for seas up to 5-7feet. Otherwise, generally southeasterly winds of 7-12ktsexpected tonight through tomorrow night. Tomorrow night windsshift to easterly winds of 7-15kts and hold until Mondaymorning.Long Term...Long period swell from Ernesto will continue Mondayinto Monday night. This may last into Tuesday morning beforeconditions fall below SCA thresholds.&&.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for MEZ023. High Surf Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for MEZ024>028.NH...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NHZ014.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150>152. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ153. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ154.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&$$SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...Ekster/PalmerSHORT TERM...PalmerLONG TERM...CannonAVIATION...MARINE...