India Q4 GDP Data Highlights: India's gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter of fiscal 2023-24 (Q4FY24) came in at 7.8 per cent, driven by strong growth in the manufacturing sector. The Indian economy beat D-Street estimates and grew by 8.2 per cent for the full year (FY24). Economists expect the momentum to remain strong this year.
According to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, May 31, the sector-wise analysis revealed that the real gross value added (GVA) grew at a rate of 7.2 per cent in 2023-24, compared to the 6.7 per cent growth observed in 2022-23. The growth propelled the Indian economy to $3.5 trillion and set the stage for achieving the $5-trillion target in the next few years.
Also Read: India’s FY24 fiscal deficit improves to 5.63% of GDP, narrower than government’s target of 5.8%
The macroeconomic data comes only days ahead of the high-stakes Lok Sabha election results 2024, due on Tuesday, June 4. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das had expected the economy to grow by eight per cent in FY24. In the previous October-December quarter (Q3FY24), the economy grew at 8.4 per cent -- at its fastest pace in six quarters.
"As predicted, GDP growth rate for 2023-24 crossed the eight per cent mark and lands at a comfortable 8.2 per cent. Great news for India!!," Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission Arvind Panagariya said in a post on ‘X’. In contrast, some economists said that the economy needs to grow faster for the benefits to percolate the unemployed and poorer sections of society.
Stay tuned to our India GDP data Live blog for the latest updates on India's macroeconomic print
31 May 2024, 10:06:59 PM IST
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31 May 2024, 09:31:24 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Former CEA Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian breaks down GDP print
Former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the government Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian said that the rate of growth of productivity in India pre 2014 was 1.3 per cent. Post 2014, it is 2.7 per cent, which is more than double. The ex-CEA also added that, ‘’There will still be critics living in their ideologically driven rabbit holes.
There's nothing wrong with the growth rate. As GDP=GVA+Net Taxes, GVA↑ at 7.2% & 8.2%↑ in GDP is credible. Even 7.2% ↑in GVA is v good!.
The higher growth in net taxes is part of the robust economic story because over the last decade median buoyancy of net taxes in India has been 1.6 with the average being 1.8,'' said Krishnamurthy V Subramanian.
31 May 2024, 08:50:01 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: PM Modi lauds India's robust macro print
"The Q4 GDP growth data for 2023-24 shows robust momentum in our economy which is poised to further accelerate. Thanks to the hardworking people of our country, 8.2 per cent growth for the year 2023-24 exemplifies that India continues to be the fastest-growing major economy globally. As I’ve said, this is just a trailer of things to come,'' said PM Modi in a post on ‘X’.
31 May 2024, 08:40:54 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: FY25 real GDP growth pegged at 6.8%
Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist & Head of Research, Acuité Ratings:
“India has continued to throw a major surprise by recording a GDP growth of 7.8 per cent in Q4FY24 and 8.2 per cent for FY24 as a whole. The GVA growth of 7.2 per cent for FY24 indeed has exceeded most expectations with a robust growth in the manufacturing sector at 9.9 per cent as compared to a negative 2.2% in FY23.
This is also despite the 0.6 per cent muted growth in the agricultural sector brought about by the El Nino phenomenon. The upside in the GDP figures have also led to a downward revision in the fiscal deficit to 5.6 per cent for FY24 which augurs well for fiscal consolidation.
While the momentum in the economy continues to be strong, there are two factors that had a meaningful contribution to the higher than expected GDP growth nos in the previous year. One is the deflation or very low WPI inflation witnessed in FY24 which leads to lower differences between real and nominal GDP growth.
As WPI inflation normalizes to ~3 per cent or higher, the difference between the two growth prints will revert to the average levels. Secondly, the upside in tax collections and the lower than budgeted subsidy payouts have also helped in elevating GDP growth as compared to GVA growth.
While government investments have been a solid support to the economy, we have continued to see a relative weakness in the private consumption expenditure which is now estimated at 4 per cent. It’s well known that the rural economy was in a relatively weak spot in the previous year which impacted overall mass consumption.
31 May 2024, 07:54:54 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Indian economy continues to remain resilient despite global challenges: finance ministerNirmala Sitharaman
‘’Today's GDP data showcases robust economic growth with a growth rate of 8.2 per cent for FY 2023-24 and 7.8 per cent for Q4 of FY 2023-24. This remarkable GDP growth rate is the highest among the major economies of the world.
It is worthwhile to note that the Manufacturing sector witnessed a significant growth of 9.9 per cent in 2023-24, highlighting the success of the Modi government's efforts for the sector.
Many high-frequency indicators indicate that the Indian economy continues to remain resilient and buoyant despite global challenges,'' said FM Sitharaman
31 May 2024, 07:43:54 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: CRISIL Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi on GDP print
India’s growth continues to surprise on the upside. Despite a poor showing by agriculture, provisional estimates peg India’s GDP growth for fiscal 2024 at 8.2 per cent. This beats the 7.6 per cent growth estimated by National Statistical Office in February.
Provisional estimates provide a better estimate with updated data and have longer shelf life as the next estimate for fiscal 2024 from NSO will come only in 2025, according to Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL Ltd
Although real GDP is still around 7.5 per cent below where it would have been without the pandemic, domestic strengths and policy focus have put the economy on a healthy growth trajectory and is trimming the permanent loss of GDP from the pandemic.
Signs of a mild slowdown were seen in the fourth quarter, when GDP grew 7.8 per cent and gross value added (GVA) 6.3 per cent. The growth moderation was seen across industry and services. From the demand-side, investment growth moderated this quarter.
We expect growth to moderate to 6.8 per cent in current fiscal, with high interest rates and lower fiscal impulse (as the deficit is trimmed to 5.1 per cent in fiscal 2025) tempering demand in non-agricultural sectors.
Agriculture, however, is expected to improve its performance in the current fiscal on the back of normal monsoons and a favorable base effect. Agriculture grew at 1.4 per cent in fiscal 2024, much below its pre-pandemic decadal average of 4.4 per cent.
31 May 2024, 07:40:55 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: India and the world
India's growth numbers come at a time when many major global economies are grappling with slowing growth due to steep interest rates. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that in calendar year (CY) 2024, the US economy will grow by 2.7 per cent, while the Eurozone and China are expected to see growth rates of 0.8 per cent and five per cent, respectively.
Amid this global slowdown, the share of exports in India's GDP declined from 23.9 per cent in FY23 to 22.7 per cent in FY24. However, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, a key investment indicator, rose by approximately nine per cent annually in FY24.
31 May 2024, 07:23:30 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International on GDP Data
"Riding on solid economic fundamentals and pegged by tremendous growth in manufacturing, construction, and defense, India’s GDP grew 7.8 per cent y-o-y during the January-March 2024 quarter (Q4 FY24), while the FY23 GDP growth stands at 8.2 per cent.
This growth reiterates India's position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy which currently holds the tag of being the world’s fifth largest economy.
The significant growth of 9.9 per cent in the manufacturing sector in 2023-24 over a contraction of (-)2.2 per cent in 2022-23 and growth of 7.1 per cent in 2023-24 over 1.9 per cent in 2022-23 for the mining sector is remarkable, showing a sustained growth momentum in domestic demand.
With the expectation of normal monsoon and continuity in policy, strong growth is expected to persist, though geopolitical situations remain a concern,'' said Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International
31 May 2024, 07:05:21 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Q4 sectoral growth rates at a glance
Construction grew 8.7 per cent in the March quarter, up from 7.4 per cent in the corresponding period of 2022-23. The agriculture sector growth decelerated to 0.6 per cent from 7.6 per cent. Electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew 7.7 per cent during the fourth quarter from 7.3 per cent in the year-ago period.
GVA growth in the services sector -- trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting -- was 5.1 per cent in the fourth quarter against a growth of 7 per cent a year ago.
Financial, real estate and professional services grew 7.6 per cent in the March 2023 quarter compared to 9.2 per cent in the year-ago period. Public administration, defence and other services posted 7.8 per cent growth in the March quarter against 4.7 per cent expansion in the same quarter a year ago.
31 May 2024, 06:55:45 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Economist Sakshi Gupta of HDFC Bank on GDP print
"GDP growth surprised again with the wedge with gross value added (GVA) continuing to remain high due to higher growth in net taxes,'' said Sakshi Gupta, Principal Economist, HDFC Bank.
"Sector wise, manufacturing and construction growth continued to remain strong. On the expenditure side, consumption growth edged up from the previous quarter, although remained in low single digits."
"Going forward, we expect the wedge between GDP and GVA to start normalising from the second quarter of FY25 as government spending goes up, and expect overall GDP growth of 6.5 per cent for FY25,'' she added.
31 May 2024, 06:51:40 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Fiscal deficit for FY24 improves to 5.63% of GDP
The government's fiscal deficit for 2023-24 stood at 5.63 per cent of the GDP, marginally better then the 5.8 per cent estimated in the Union Budget, as per official data released on Friday.
In actual terms, the fiscal deficit, or gap between expenditure and revenue, was at ₹16.53 lakh crore. In the revised estimate for 2023-24, the government had projected the fiscal deficit of ₹17.34 lakh crore, or 5.8 per cent of the GDP, in the interim Budget tabled on February 1 in Parliament.
According to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts, the government managed to meet the revenue collection target. The net tax collection was at ₹23.26 lakh crore in FY24, while the expenditure stood at ₹44.42 lakh crore.
31 May 2024, 06:45:02 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Dr SP Sharma on the GDP growth print
Dr SP Sharma, Chief Economist says, " GDP numbers are very inspiring. We anticipate that growth will be robust in the coming years also and for the current year, 8.2 per cent is very encouraging despite so many headwinds...this is indicating the results of the effective reforms undertaken during the last many years, particularly during the COVID pandemic...in 2024-25 we are going to become $4 trillion economy...by 2030 we will be $7 trillion economy..."
31 May 2024, 06:38:50 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Sectoral insight
Manufacturing output rose 8.9 per cent year-on-year in the three months ending in March, compared with a revised expansion of 11.5 per cent in the previous quarter, while farm output growth accelerated to 0.6 per cent after revised 0.4 per cent growth in the previous quarter, the data showed.
Investors are looking ahead to the election results and full-year budget in mid-July to assess any steps by the new government to boost the economy. The RBI's record surplus transfer of ₹2.11 trillion ($25.3 billion) earlier this month is likely to allow the government to increase state spending or cut the fiscal deficit.
31 May 2024, 06:29:48 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: India's forex reserves drop by $ 2 billion to $646.67 billion
India's forex reserves dropped by $2.027 billion to $646.673 billion for the week ended May 24, said the RBI on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the kitty had reached an all-time high of $648.7 billion after a jump of $4.549 billion.
For the week ended May 24, foreign currency assets, a major component of the reserves, decreased by $1.51 billion to $567.499 billion, the data released on Friday showed.
31 May 2024, 06:26:04 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: India to achieve 7% growth rate in FY25: Sujan Hajra, Anand Rathi
‘’India's GDP growth for the full year 2023-24 and the January-March 2024 quarter exceeded both our expectations and the consensus forecast. This robust performance was driven by continued strong investment and subdued private consumption growth, alongside a significant contribution from discrepancies—the unexplained component of GDP. These discrepancies also explain the notable divergence between GDP and GVA growth,'' said Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist & Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers
Despite the high base set by unexpectedly strong growth in FY24, we anticipate India will achieve close to 7 per cent growth in FY25, thanks to sustained economic momentum. This year, we expect a meaningful pickup in private consumption and a possible modest deceleration in investment growth. With robust growth and declining inflation, the Indian economy is in an enviable position, poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
‘’While these strong growth figures may present a challenge for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monetary policy decisions, slower inflation and ongoing fiscal consolidation should pave the way for modest rate reductions in the first half of 2025. This emerging scenario bodes well for the Indian equity market. Despite a sharp rally over the past 12 months, we expect equity returns to remain healthy in the next year,'' said Hajra.
31 May 2024, 06:03:54 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Wide gap between GDP and GVA
There was a wide divergence in the two measures of growth — GDP and gross value added, or GVA — as was the case in the previous quarter. That suggests the calculation of the GDP data was impacted once again by the net indirect tax category, largely due to a drop in government subsidies, according to Bloomberg.
Economists had previously said GVA was a better measure of growth given the distortion to the GDP figure. GVA rose 6.3 per cent in the first three months of the year from a year earlier, said the statistics ministry. The GDP growth was driven by government spending and resilient consumer demand. Economists expect the momentum to remain strong this year.
31 May 2024, 05:57:54 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Real GVA at 6.3% in Q4FY24
Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹47.24 lakh crore, against ₹43.84 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 7.8 per cent.
Real GVA in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹42.23 lakh crore, against ₹39.74 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 6.3 per cent.
31 May 2024, 05:56:00 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Real GVA at 7.2% in FY24
Real gross value added (GVA) has grown by 7.2 per cent in 2023-24 over 6.7 per cent in 2022-23. This GVA growth has been mainly due to significant growth of 9.9 per cent in the manufacturing sector in 2023-24 over -2.2 per cent in 2022-23 and growth of 7.1 per cent in 2023-24 over 1.9 per cent in 2022-23 for the mining and quarrying sector.
31 May 2024, 05:49:52 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: FY24 GDP growth rises to 8.2%, Q4GDP data moderates to 7.8%
The Statistics Ministry data revealed that the real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2 per cent in FY 2023-24 compared to the growth rate of 7 per cent in FY 2022-23. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.6 per cent in FY 2023-24 over the growth rate of 14.2 per cent in FY 2022-23.
31 May 2024, 05:20:51 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: April core sector industries' growth rate at 6.2%
Eight key infrastructure sectors' growth rose to 6.2 per cent in April on healthy expansion in the production of natural gas, refinery products and electricity, according to official data released on Friday.
The production of eight sectors grew by 6 per cent in March. The growth of these core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 4.6 per cent in April 2023.
31 May 2024, 05:11:38 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: S&P to watch govt policies for next 2 years before taking call on India's rating upgrade
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade.
S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
"Within the next 2 years we will be closely observing whether the government's depiction of fiscal consolidation path will carry on... We will be observing for the next 1-2 years to see how this fiscal numbers will come to pass and if so, this will lead to a rating upgrade," S&P Global Ratings Analyst YeeFarn Phua said in a webinar.
31 May 2024, 05:00:27 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: DBS Bank sets fiscal deficit target
The FY25 deficit target had been set a narrower -5.1 per cent of GDP, narrower than market expectations, while affirming the intention to move towards the -4.5 per cent target in FY26. Government cash balances are high, and revenues have been faring well (including the windfall from the RBI surplus transfer), providing the headroom to cut back on borrowings, if necessary. While an outright demand stimulus is not on the cards, there is a small likelihood of steps to boost discretionary demand via allowances or rebates.
31 May 2024, 04:44:02 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: RBI repo rate cut expectations pushed back to December quarter
The RBI is set to announce its monetary policy next week after the conclusion of the meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) from June 5-7.
The RBI’s MPC is widely expected to hold the benchmark repo rate in its upcoming policy, while it may cut interest rates just once this year, most likely in October-December rather than next quarter, according to the economists polled by Reuters on the timing of the first move. However, there was no clear majority among economists.
Nearly half of economists surveyed, 33 of 71, predicted that the RBI will opt for first repo rate cut in Q4 2024, giving a median forecast of 6.25 per cent. Earlier in April, most economists expected the first cut in Q3.
By end-2024, 33 of 71 said rates would be 25 basis points (bps) lower at 6.25%, 15 said 6 per cent and five expected 5.75 per cent or lower. The remaining 18 forecast no rate change this year, Reuters reported.
Those predictions come despite widespread expectations inflation will stay above four per cent, the mid-point of the RBI’s preferred band of 2 per cent-6 per cent range, this year and next.
31 May 2024, 04:33:37 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Services and Consumption
Last quarter’s growth was likely driven by investments, construction and manufacturing but there are “some pockets of weakness in corporate earnings which can dampen the overall growth numbers," said Suvodeep Raksh*t, chief economist of Kotak Institutional Equities.
Growth in the services sector, which makes for about half of GDP, likely held up last quarter, while government spending also continued to expand, Nirmal Bang’s John said.
Strong urban demand and wage growth likely supported consumer spending, which makes up more than 60 per cent of the economy, economists said. Rural demand remained weak, albeit showing some nascent signs of recovery.
31 May 2024, 04:27:03 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Growth divergence
Growth in the October-December quarter was fueled by an unexpected drop in government subsidies, which gave an artificial boost to the net indirect tax category used to calculate gross domestic product. An alternative measure of growth using gross value added was 6.5 per cent in the quarter.
Economists said the January-March quarter may continue to reflect a wide divergence between GDP and GVA. Latest data from the central government and various states suggest subsidies are currently at about 30% lower than the previous year, Madhavi Arora, an economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. estimated. This could “artificially push the fourth quarter GDP print," to near 6.9 per cent-7 per cent, above expectations, she said. GVA growth may still be shy of six per cent, she added.
31 May 2024, 04:20:46 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Sensex, Nifty 50 rise after 5-day slump ahead of GDP data release
Indian stock market benchmarks—the Sensex and the Nifty 50—ended with mild gains on Friday, May 31, snapping the losing streak of the last five consecutive sessions. All eyes are now on the last phase of the General Election 2024 on Saturday, June 1, followed by the exit poll results. The counting of votes will commence on June 4, and the results could be announced later that day.
Sensex settled 76 points, or 0.10 per cent, higher at 73,961.31, with 15 stocks up. The Nifty 50 closed 42 points, or 0.19 per cent, up at 22,530.70 with 26 stocks in the green. The BSE Midcap index closed with a tepid gain of 0.06 per cent, but the Smallcap index rose 0.76 per cent.
The domestic stock market has been under pressure lately owing to nervousness related to the Lok Sabha election 2024. Strong capital outflows by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), mixed global cues, dwindling hopes of rate cuts, and concerns over geopolitical tensions have all been weighing on market sentiment lately.
31 May 2024, 04:16:59 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: GDP expectations by PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry
‘’We are expecting Q4 real GDP to hover around seven per cent making an overall growth for the year 2023-24 at around 7.9 per cent, said Sanjeev Agrawal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The high growth trajectory achieved in the post Covid years is reflecting the impact of effective economic reforms undertaken by the government during the post-Covid years, as economy grew at 9.1 per cent in 2021-22, 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and is expected to grow around 7.9 per cent in 2023-24, said Agrawal.
Going forward, real GDP in 2024-25 is expected to hover around 8.1 per cent on the back of continued reforms by the government The markets created a great gung-ho and market cap elevated to USD 5 trillion recently. The high growth trajectory of the Indian economy is expected to support the market momentum to the new highs, however, volatility can’t be ruled out vis-a-vis ongoing electoral process in the country.
The market momentum indicators such as high growth of GDP, forecast for the positive monsoon behaviour, softening inflation and fiscal direction are moving in tandem and supporting India’s lucrativeness to the global investors, said Sanjeev Agrawal.
31 May 2024, 04:07:25 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Basic metals, pharma, petroleum back to pre-Covid levels
Based on the IIP trends in 1Q24, sectors like basic metals, transport equipment, pharma, petroleum, and chemicals are back to pre-pandemic levels. Large scale electronics, especially telecom instruments meanwhile, continues to benefit from improving production trends and indigenisation of the value chain players, according to Radhika Rao of DBS Bank
Business sentiments held up, captured by optimism on production and capacity utilisation, accompanied by a record high in e-way bills and double-digit jump in toll collections in March. General government capital spending picked pace ahead of the elections, while the infrastructure industry index moderated towards the end of the period, including steel production.
31 May 2024, 04:02:10 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: Mint poll of economists
According to a Mint poll of economists, India's Q4 GDP growth slowed to 7 per cent due to a slowdown in industrial growth and subdued agricultural activities.
However, strong growth in all quarters would result in GDP growth rising to 7.9 per cent in FY24 from 7 per cent the previous year, according to estimates by 19 economists.
Although Q4 GDP growth is expected to moderate compared to the third quarter, it is unlikely to impact market sentiment significantly, as attention is primarily focused on the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
31 May 2024, 03:49:06 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: DBS Bank's Radhika Rao predicts Q4GDP growth at 7.5%
Radhika Rao, Senior Economist and Executive Director of leading multinational DBS Bank in an interview to Mint's Nikita Prasad, said that India's GDP growth in Q4FY24 will come above seven per cent.
The infrastructure spending growth rate will outpace consumption in FY25 for the fourth consecutive year, according to the economist. ‘’We peg our real GDP growth forecast at seven per cent YoY, taking the full year FY24 growth closer towards eight per cent,'' said Rao.
31 May 2024, 03:16:30 PM IST
India Q4 GDP Data Live: FY24 GDP likely to hit 8%; Q4 to ease around 7%
The Statistics Ministry will release the full-year GDP data growth today along with the quarterly print for the January-March quarter. Several brokerage reports and analysts are predicting that India's GDP growth in FY24 likely rose above 7.5 per cent and may hit eight per cent on strong base fundamentals.
